Subnautica 2 Leads Steam Wishlists for 2026 Releases, Alinea Analytics Reports
Steam wishlists are not a clean predictor of day one sales, but at scale they are one of the strongest early market signals we get for awareness, intent, and community heat. This week, analyst firm Alinea Analytics shifted focus from sales tracking to demand tracking, publishing a breakdown of the most wishlisted upcoming 2026 titles on Steam in its latest report.
At the center of the ranking is Subnautica 2, which Alinea estimates at 3,800,000 wishlists on Steam, placing it at number 1 among upcoming 2026 titles. For context, Valve also features a public Top Wishlists view that factors in how quickly a game is earning wishlists, not only the raw total, which can temporarily boost newer store pages that are spiking in velocity.
In Alinea’s ranking, Forza Horizon 6 lands in second place with 2,600,000 wishlists, followed closely by Resident Evil Requiem in third with 2,500,000 wishlists. The report adds an additional business angle: both Forza Horizon 6 and Resident Evil Requiem are already generating early revenue through preorders, estimated at roughly 250,000 copies for Forza Horizon 6 and 220,000 copies for Resident Evil Requiem, while Subnautica 2 is not currently available for preorder.
Alinea frames Subnautica 2’s momentum as a logical continuation of franchise performance. The original Subnautica has sold 15,000,000 copies across platforms, and Subnautica Below Zero is approaching 5,000,000, with Steam representing roughly 2/3 of total franchise sales. The report also notes a structural advantage: Subnautica 2 has been available to wishlist since 2024, giving it more runway to accumulate interest than later arriving pages.
There is, however, a narrative wildcard hovering over the launch runway. Subnautica 2 is tied up in an ongoing legal dispute involving Krafton and former Unknown Worlds executives, with public reporting describing allegations and counterclaims around leadership changes, release timing, and an earnout reportedly valued at {United States 250 million dollars: 250,000,000$}. Even if this does not translate into direct consumer backlash, it is the kind of headline gravity that can influence sentiment cycles, creator coverage, and community trust during the prelaunch phase, especially for a franchise that thrives on long tail word of mouth.
From a market lens, the big takeaway is that 2026’s Steam demand picture is already forming around three heavyweight pillars: a survival exploration sequel with deep community attachment, a flagship racing brand with mainstream reach, and a legacy horror franchise that consistently converts hype into sales. Wishlists alone will not crown a winner, but the funnel is clearly loading.
Do you think Subnautica 2’s 3,800,000 wishlists will translate into day one dominance, or will a sharper preorder conversion from Forza Horizon 6 or Resident Evil Requiem steal the spotlight?
